Team win totals contest. Pick seven teams and predict how they will do against the Las Vegas over-under line. My picks: Yankees – under 99, White Sox - over 89, Mets – under 90.5, Astros – over 88.5, Giants – under 89, Dodgers – under 84, Rockies – over 77. (Baseball Primer)

Derek Zumsteg: "The cure for hopeless franchises is not to reward them for driving themselves into the ground. It's to encourage them, as the Mariners have done, to right their ship and set a better course." (Baseball Prospectus)

Joe Sheehan on Bud Selig's Town Hall Meeting. (Baseball Prospectus)

Gary Huckabay: "The Baltimore Orioles are completely adrift, both in the front office and on the field. There's no capability to play quality baseball on the field, and there's no evidence that suggests that the front office is even aware of this." (Baseball Prospectus)

Dan McLaughlin's 2002 forecast. (Providence Journal)

Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis for March 19-25. "The Dodgers seem to have overlooked that [Jesse] Orosco wasn't any good in the situational job last year, and they're asking for trouble if try and rely on him to get people like Barry Bonds or Todd Helton or Larry Walker or Ryan Klesko. When he's brought in to face Sean Burroughs, he'll be facing somebody who was born in Orosco's third year of pitching professionally. He won't get the kid out." (Baseball Prospectus)

Joe Sheehan (Baseball Prospectus) reports from Arizona:

Day Zero. "[A]s what we've been doing influences the mainstream, we'll have to make an effort to enhance our work with the insider information we've at times disdained. Being dismissive of it is just as bad as the beat writer who dismisses OBP or the national columnist who derides statheads."

Day One. "The one A's left-handed hitter who looked good against [Brian] Anderson was Eric Chavez…If Chavez has learned to hit southpaws, then the question 'who's the best third baseman in baseball?' gets that much tougher. Or maybe, that much easier."

Day Two. "The only good thing that might come out of Jermaine Dye being unable to start the season is playing time for [Eric] Byrnes, who is ready to be a good fourth outfielder or a decent starter right now. Given the A's pressing need for outfielders who can chase down baseballs, Byrnes could end up as an important part of this team going forward."

Art Martone on the 2002 Red Sox, numbers 41 (Ugueth Urbina) through 49 (Tim Wakefield). "So why didn't the Yankees want [Urbina]?…Wouldn't he have been a better midseason addition than Jay Witasick? Wouldn't he have been a better return for D'Angelo Jiminez? And isn't it possible the ninth inning last November 4 in Arizona would have played out differently had Urbina been around to pitch the eighth as the set-up man, leaving Mariano Rivera to get only three outs instead of six?" (Providence Journal)

Art Martone on the 2002 Red Sox, numbers 33 (Jason Varitek) through 37 (Frank Castillo). "There's no reason to think [Darren] Oliver is anything more than what he's been for the last several years in Texas. His OPS allowed last year was .881, which means the average guy in the batter's box hit like Trot Nixon when Oliver was on the mound." (Providence Journal)

Art Martone on the 2002 Red Sox, numbers 31 (Dustin Hermanson) and 32 (Derek Lowe). "[Y]ou can't help but reach the conclusion -- or at least I can't -- that Joe Kerrigan did the right thing when he made a starter out of Lowe last September...Six or seven front-of-the-game innings from Derek Lowe are more valuable than the one, end-of-the-game inning he was capable of providing. (Providence Journal)

Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis for March 14-18. "[Juan] Pierre is a player that we should all enjoy watching, both on the visceral 'watch that waterbug skitter on the bases' level, and on the lofty theoretical level of seeing what a player with his ability to run and make contact can do on Planet Coors." (Baseball Prospectus)

Joe Sheehan picks the Cardinals to win the NL Central. (Baseball Prospectus)

Sports Illustrated's daring predictions for 2002. No, these aren't last year's standings. If you look closely, you can see the White Sox on top of the AL Central, with the Indians falling to third. The Phillies tumble from second to fourth in the NL East, with the Mets and Marlins moving up. Those are the only differences. The AL postseason is exactly the same as last year, except of course the White Sox replace the Indians as Seattle's first-round victim. In the NL, SI goes way out on a limb, picking the Cardinals to win the pennant and then lose to the Yankees in the World Series. BORR-RING. This is like the guy in the NCAA pool who picks 90% favorites, with all #1 seeds in the Final Four and the defending champion winning it all.

Another good team weblog: Bill and Cal's Pittsburgh Pirates Weblog. The hosts promise to "show you some laughs and some of our opinions on the worst organization in baseball."

Giants linked to cycle crash. It appears that Jeff Kent's wrist injury was caused by falling off his motorcycle while attempting a wheelie. (SF Gate)

Pirates' Bell threatens 'Operation Shutdown' if he's not starter. "Bell's big contract, which he landed despite hitting below .200 in the second half of the 2000 season with the Mets, is believed to have contributed to former Pirates general manager Cam Bonifay's firing in June." You think? (ESPN)

Bill Simmons dips into his mailbag. "Not only did new Red Sox manager Grady Little serve as the technical advisor for the baseball scenes in [Bull Durham], but as reader Kevin Geraghty points out, 'Someone needs to tell Little, and do it quickly, that the way to gain the confidence of Red Sox fans is most assuredly not to claim credit for teaching Tim Robbins how to pitch in Bull Durham. That's like Denny Terrio taking claim for teaching Elaine Benes ("Seinfeld") how to dance.'" (ESPN)

Bill Simmons, take note: The Mariners watch more than their share of chick flicks...

Seattle Post-Intelligencer: "Last movie rented?"
Lou Piniella: "I've never rented one. My wife is the renter in the house, and I watch those."
Bret Boone: "I can't recall. Something that my wife brought home."
Jeff Cirillo: "American Sweethearts. It was OK, with John Cusack, Julia Roberts and Catherine Zeta-Jones."
Ryan Franklin: "'Moulin Rouge.' My wife wanted to watch it. It's not my kind of movie. I don't much like Broadway-style singing." Sure...

Art Martone on the 2002 Red Sox, numbers 26 (Lou Merloni) through 30 (Derek Bell Lite). "Releasing Jose Offerman would be the biggest signal the new owners could send that things are different now, that there's a new sherriff in town." (Providence Journal)

New weblog in the left-hand column: Cleveland Indians Report. It's worth checking out.

Rany Jazayerli: "Mike Sweeney's contract negotiations are a fulcrum on which the entire [Royals] franchise is perched. If David Glass can take his head out of the sand long enough to get Sweeney signed, then the Royals have a starting point to get their other young players eventually signed, starting with Beltran, and the team can start following teams like the A's down the road to small-market success." (Baseball Prospectus)

Joe Sheehan on likely Rookie-of-the-Year candidates. (Baseball Prospectus)

The Stat-Head Revolution. Cool! A Village Voice article that mentions Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Primer, Bill James, Rob Neyer, Chris Kahrl, Keith Law, Joe Sheehan, Voros McCracken, and Erubiel Durazo.

Dean Chadwin: "[If Drew Henson] ever plays a full season at third for the Yankees, get Keith Olbermann's mom a full suit of armor." Also: Neil DeMause, who wrote the aforementioned stat-head article, on the 60/40 rule. (Village Voice)

Art Martone on the 2002 Red Sox, numbers 18 (Johnny Damon) through 24 (Manny Ramirez). "What [Damon] gives the Sox is a Grade A defensive center fielder -- their best flychaser at that position since Fred Lynn, though the Buford/Lewis tandem in 1998 was pretty good -- and a Grade A leadoff hitter, both of which were weaknesses in 2001. And he loves it here. Who could ask for anything more?" (Providence Journal)

Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis for March 6-13. "Anybody want to take odds on the Padres winning a couple of division titles before [GM Kevin Towers'] contract runs out? What's the over-under? Three seems about right, through 2008, three in seven years, considering the shape of things to come in Los Angeles and San Francisco in particular, and the absence of a long-term plan in Colorado." (Baseball Prospectus)

Rob Neyer on the 1945 Senators. (ESPN)

The Week in Quotes from Baseball Prospectus.
Derek Jeter: "Hey, where's my glove?"

Art Martone (Providence Journal) looks at the 2002 Red Sox, player by player, by uniform number:

Part 1: 2 (Damon Buford) through 10 (Carlos Baerga).

Part 2: 11 (Michael Coleman) through 17 (Willie Banks).

MLB to restrict body armor. Bad news for Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds and Mo Vaughn. (USA Today)

Sleepers to watch in 2002. Joe Sheehan on Jeremy Giambi: "Left alone to be the DH -- Carlos Pena is at first base, and Giambi's play in the outfield is decidedly NC-17 -- he'll be within 20 runs of big brother's numbers, and come about $15 million cheaper." (ESPN)

Derek Zumsteg on the myth of competitive imbalance. "The Yankees spend a lot of money, and they spend it well, but to suggest that the Yankees are somehow a super team on a run that has destroyed balance in baseball is lunacy." (Baseball Prospectus)

Yankees Cast Out Returning Ruben. Apparently, he stole a bat and a glove from Derek Jeter's locker and sold it to a memorabilia dealer. His guaranteed $1,000,000 contract is now void. (New York Daily News)

Going back in time… Rob Neyer on three baseball games he wishes he could have seen. (ESPN)

Baseball Primer has added a Red Sox weblog: Sox Therapy.

Rany Jazayerli: "[Allard] Baird has my admiration. After all, if he can conclude that he can't afford to waste millions of dollars on Jose Rosado, how much longer can it be before he connects the dots with Roberto Hernandez?" (Baseball Prospectus)

Joe Sheehan: "In my mind, [Jeff] Shaw has always been the best example of the absurdity of the "closer" myth...For as much complaint as people have about statheads, no stathead would ever let a statistic as meaningless as saves drive usage patterns, player valuations, and resource allocation. The nominal professionals do it all the time." (Baseball Prospectus)

Joe Sheehan: "A few weeks ago at the BP Pizza Feed in Los Angeles, one of the attendees--sorry, I don't remember who--asked me what we could expect from Jeff Torborg in Florida...The short answer is that there's some reason to be concerned for the arms of Beckett, Brad Penny, and Ryan Dempster." (Baseball Prospectus)

Chris Kahrl's Transaction Analysis for February 16 – March 5. "Abreu looks like somebody who will age well. He's coming off of three straight 100-walk seasons, he's picking up power as he ages, he can handle right field well, he can run, and he won't have Richie Hebner barking at him from here on out. What's not to like?" (Baseball Prospectus)

Dan McLaughlin predicts that Derek Lowe will have a solid season as a starter for Boston. (Providence Journal)

Ray Hartmann: "Through all the smoke and mirrors of the Cardinals' quest for a publicly funded new stadium, there's one place they don't want the argument to go. That would be San Francisco...Much to the chagrin of the Cardinals' would-be corporate-welfare recipients, the success story known as Pacific Bell Park is a $319 million state-of-the-art monument to taxpayer sanity." (St. Louis Riverfront Times)

Joe Sheehan: "The NFL and MLB are different in so many basic ways that comparing the two, and expecting one to ape the other, is a mistake." (Baseball Prospectus)

Peter Gammons: "Their owner tried to disown them. The commissioner tried to bury them. The players didn’t know until a week before spring training who they would be training for. But they’re back...Start spreading the news: The Minnesota Twins are America’s Team." (ESPN The Magazine)

Peter Gammons: "The Anaheim Angels may turn out to be a sleeper this season." (ESPN)

Chat wrap with the Indians' Milton Bradley. "Minnesota is always scrappy and Chicago thinks they have what it takes to make a run but the division is still ours. We are still the big dogs and they all have to conquer us. Chicago says it's their division to lose but they have another thing coming if they think we are going to let them take it." (ESPN)

John Bonnes: "I was a little disappointed when the first names I started to see a couple days ago were the bevy of utility guys the Twins have in camp. One of the sins which a lot of organizations commit is choosing the lesser of two players, simply because they are the known commodity. People do it all the time, but an organization needs to rise above it." (Twins Takes)

Garvey sued over diet claims. "FTC lawyer David P. Frankel quoted Garvey as telling viewers: 'Look at all these delicious supposedly forbidden foods — barbecued chicken and ribs, buttered biscuits. Foods you can eat when you crave them, without guilt, without worry, and it's all because of a few little capsules.''' If I buy the Tom Emanski instructional videos, and my son gets cut from his Little League team, I'm suing Fred McGriff. (Toronto Star)

If at 1st, Mattingly the Man. He's giving fielding lessons to Jason Giambi. 100% coach, 0% BS. (New York Daily News)

Kerrigan fired as Red Sox manager. (Boston Globe)

Indians' Escobar out for season. "Escobar, the key player in the trade that sent All-Star Roberto Alomar to the New York Mets, will undergo reconstructive surgery after completely tearing his anterior cruciate ligament, the team said Tuesday." (Yahoo)

Jay Jaffe hopes Nick Johnson hasn't been taking hitting advice from his uncle Larry (Bowa). (Futility Infielder)

Joe Sheehan believes that 8 teams, and only 8, have no hope of reaching the postseason this year: Orioles, Devil Rays, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Expos, Brewers, Pirates. "I gave serious thought to adding the Dodgers, but left them off because, well, maybe Paul LoDuca is for real, and maybe this is the year Adrian Beltre hits .310 with power. That's enough to give the Dodgers, carrying a whole bunch of center fielders and middle infielders who suck, hope and faith." (Baseball Prospectus)

Craig Calcaterra forecasts the AL Central, AL West, and AL East. "Heck, given the direction of the Indians and the sorry state of the other teams in the division, let’s just pencil the White Sox in as division champs for the foreseeable future. Now, if they would only bring back those 1970s uniforms with the clam digger pants, real progress will have been made." (Bull) (Credit to Clutch Hits for the link)

The Week in Quotes from Baseball Prospectus. Phillies president Dave Montgomery: "I guess there's one point that Scott [Rolen] made that I agree with. He indicated he's an idiot for not signing with us."

Pete Caldera: "The moment that Roberto Alomar trots to his second base position at Shea Stadium, he will become the best all-around player in Mets history." What about Tom Seaver? "Keep Tom Seaver out of it. Pitchers don't count in this equation." OK, then...Mike Piazza? "Like Alomar, Mike Piazza is a future Hall of Famer. But Piazza will go as the most fearsome right-handed hitting catcher of all time. Alomar will get to Cooperstown because of his entire game." (NorthJersey.com)

Dumb injury of the week: Kent injures wrist while washing truck. He'll be out 4-6 weeks. (ESPN)

Joe Sheehan: "If the Angels were in a weak division, they'd be a serious contender based on their pitching and the idea that things could break right offensively. Unfortunately, they're in deepest, nastiest division in baseball, fighting three of the top six or seven teams in the American League." (Baseball Prospectus)

Chat wrap with Gary Huckabay. "The Mets have a lot of players with significant downside risk, both on the mound, and in the field. Some of them are going to tank, and Steve Phillips will have to do some roster dancing to keep them competitive." (ESPN)

Chat wrap with Bill Simmons. "I think [Duquette is] going to remain in his office and keep trying to make trades until they ban him from the premises. Like a Michael Douglas in Falling Down kind of thing. I still dont think he realizes he's been fired." (ESPN)

Tom Tippett, researching the 1978-81 period for Diamond Mind Baseball, examined newspapers and books from the period and found some interesting stuff. Some things have changed a lot (the teams with the four highest payrolls in 1977 were the Phillies, Yankees, Reds, and Pirates); some things haven't changed at all (teams were crying poor despite record-breaking revenues and an average player salary of just $76,349).

Retrosheet has compiled hundreds of anecdotes of strange and unusual plays throughout history, taken from box scores and news accounts. Examples:

8-3-1909 BRO @ PIT - Forbes Field was only 4 weeks old when Ed Abbaticchio hit an inside the park home run to RF when the ball rolled to the "corner tank where horses dive."

6-24-1949 SLA @ BOS - In the bottom of the 8th inning with Boston leading 19-2, the Red Sox pulled off a double steal with Ted Williams stealing 2B (his only stolen base of the season) and Johnny Pesky stealing home.

(Let me guess: The next pitch was high and inside.)

8-4-1950 BOS @ CHA - With one out in the bottom of the third, Chicago's Nellie Fox blooped a double to center that struck his own glove lying in shallow center field.

(This happened in 1950? I knew that players used to leave their gloves on the field, but I always assumed that the practice ended around 1900.)

Jonah Keri: "For [Dave] Littlefield to make a positive impact in his first full season as [Pirates] GM, he'll have to ask himself a question that should guide most of his decisions. Namely, 'where in the success cycle does my team stand?'" (Baseball Prospectus)